Nike Beats Estimates Despite 12% China Sales Drop in Q4
Nike topped Wall Street estimates even as China revenue fell 12%, and the company expects a $986M tariff refund.
Nike just proved the doubters wrong — again. The sneaker giant posted quarterly results that beat analyst estimates, even as its China business bled out a steep 12% decline in sales. That's not a small miss; that's a major revenue engine sputtering. And yet Nike still came out ahead.
The company has been deep in turnaround mode, fighting to rebuild momentum after a rough stretch of slowing consumer demand and intensifying competition from upstarts like On Running and Hoka. Wall Street was bracing for another ugly quarter. Nike delivered a relative win instead — and that matters for sentiment.
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Here's the number that really turns heads: Nike expects a $986 million tariff refund. That's nearly a billion dollars potentially coming back into the balance sheet. In a high-tariff environment where margins are getting crushed across retail, that kind of refund is a serious cushion — and a tradeable catalyst if it materializes on schedule.
China remains the wildcard. A 12% drop in that market signals that the brand still hasn't cracked the code on reconnecting with Chinese consumers, who have increasingly pivoted toward domestic athletic brands. Nike's recovery there will be a key metric to watch every single quarter going forward.
Bottom line: Nike isn't out of the woods, but this quarter buys the turnaround strategy more runway. The tariff refund is the sleeper story here — watch how management deploys that capital. Continue reading at US Top News and Analysis.
