NY Empire State Manufacturing Blows Past Forecasts in July
July's Empire State index hit 15.6, nearly doubling the 8.8 estimate. New orders and shipments surged sharply.
New York manufacturers just handed the bears a reality check. The Empire State Manufacturing Index for July came in at 15.6 — way above the 8.8 estimate and more than double last month's already-beaten 5.7 reading. That's a clean beat on a report that's been a mess all year, and you need to pay attention.
The internals are where it gets interesting. New orders exploded to 22.2 from just 3.5 the prior month. Shipments jumped to 24.4 versus 8.6 before. That's not noise — that's demand actually moving product out the door. Employment ticked higher too, coming in at 11.4 versus 9.6 prior. If you've been positioned for a manufacturing collapse, this report is not your friend.
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The inflation picture inside the report is giving some relief. Prices paid eased to 52.3 from 61.0, and prices received cooled to 27.6 from 31.4. That's still elevated, but the trend is moving in the right direction. Less cost pressure on producers without a demand cliff — that's a Goldilocks combo if it holds.
Forward expectations remain constructive but are softening around the edges. The six-month outlook slipped to 27.9 from 30.1, and forward employment dropped to 14.4 from 20.9. Manufacturers still see growth ahead, just not accelerating. The forward prices paid figure also eased to 53.0 from 59.4, which lines up with the current trend and could keep the Fed's inflation hawks slightly less agitated.
Bottom line: this is a stronger-than-expected snapshot of regional manufacturing that pushes back on recession narratives — at least for now. Watch how broader risk assets digest this alongside the rest of the week's data. Continue reading at Forexlive.
