US Dollar Drops After Jobs Miss, Yen Surges on BOJ Stealth Move
June payrolls came in at 57K vs. 110K expected, hammering the dollar. But the move faded fast in pre-holiday chop.
June non-farm payrolls just punched the dollar in the face. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs last month against expectations of 110,000 — a massive miss that sent the greenback sliding, bonds rallying, and stocks briefly popping. None of it stuck. Pre-Fourth of July holiday flows took over and muddied every clean trade you tried to run.
Here's the weird part: the JOLTS report earlier this week showed job openings at a two-year high. So where did the hiring go? Hospitality jobs took a big hit — right before the World Cup kicks off on US soil. That makes zero sense, and traders clearly didn't know what to do with it either. Confusion equals faded moves.
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The Fed isn't rushing anywhere off this print. Chair Daly noted exceedingly strong investment growth in the US, and one soft payrolls number won't shake the Fed's neutral posture loose. The euro briefly touched 1.1472 before giving back 40 pips. Gold ripped $83 higher to $4,113. The 10-year yield barely budged at 4.48%.
The real story of the session is USD/JPY. The yen is the top performer on the day as Japanese officials appear to be running stealth intervention. The pair touched 160.65 right after the jobs print and crept back to 161.14. With US markets running thin on Friday for the July 4th holiday weekend, watch that pair — thin liquidity and active BOJ jawboning is a dangerous combo for anyone short yen.
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