Oil Ticks Up as Strait of Hormuz Stays Effectively Shut
WTI crude gains 0.7% to $72.60 as US-Iran tensions keep the Strait of Hormuz in de facto closure heading into the weekend.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again, and oil is pricing that in. WTI crude climbed 0.7% to $72.60 Friday as US-Iran negotiations remain stuck in limbo. A US official floated the idea that talks could still happen, but don't hold your breath — the shipping lane bottleneck is real and it's showing up at the pump level.
Global oil supply did recover somewhat in June, rising 4.1 million barrels per day as some Hormuz flows resumed. The catch? Supply is still running 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, according to the IEA. That gap is massive, and any trader betting on a quick resolution to the Iran standoff is playing a dangerous game right now.
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Everywhere else, markets were in sleepwalk mode to close out the week. European indices barely moved. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% with Nasdaq futures off 0.3% — tech giving back a little. US 10-year yields crept up just 0.6 basis points to 4.547%, which tells you bond traders aren't panicking either way. Gold slipped 0.3% to $4,107 and silver dropped 0.9% to $59.45 — precious metals fading as the week's fear premium bled out.
The yen was the standout currency mover. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 161.80 after Japan signaled a major pension allocation shift. The dollar overall was flat — EUR/USD stuck at 1.1430, GBP/USD barely budging at 1.3425. The Bank of Japan is also expected to hold rates at its July meeting while keeping its tightening bias, which matters for yen positioning next week.
Mark your calendar: the US CPI report for June drops July 14. That's the next real catalyst. Between now and then, watch Hormuz headlines and oil closely — that's where this market's pulse is. Continue reading at Forexlive.
